Amerika du hast es besser

[Peiresc]

,,UnfollowTrump" ist ein Twitter-Account, der es ermöglicht, die Trump-Tweets zu sehen, ohne dass man Trump selber folgen muss. UnfollowTrump gibt keine eigenen Kommentare ab, es ist eine reine Relaisstation.
Trump hat gerade rechtsextreme muslimfeindliche Tweets weiter verbreitet.

[Peiresc]

Es läuft mal wieder vieles parallel. Das wichtigste Thema ist die Steuer"reform". Die Republikaner scheinen sie durchsetzen zu können. Ich habe sie nicht systematisch verfolgt, aber nach meinem Eindruck sind die Reaganschen Voodoo-Economics mit ihrer Schuldenexplosion dagegen ein Haushaltssanierungsprogramm gewesen. Die Liste der in ihr verpackten Scheußlichkeiten ist schier endlos. Matthew Yglesias meint, er hätte es noch vor einem Jahr für unmöglich gehalten, dass man eine solche Gesetzgebung gegen alle Interessengruppen (mit Ausnahme der Milliardäre) durchbringen kann. 

Ich nenne nur ein einziges Beispiel: die Aufhebung des ,,individual mandate", d. h. der Ausgleichszahlung, wenn man keine Obamacare-Versicherung abschließt. Diese Aufhebung wird die Prämien derjenigen, die auf Obamacare angewiesen sind, durch die Decke jagen. Millionen werden ihre Krankenversicherung verlieren.

Bernie Sanders gibt eine Prognose ab, die IMHO eine gewisse Wahrscheinlichkeit hat:

It is without doubt that as soon as this tax legislation is passed, Republicans will rediscover their religion about the deficit and say we need "entitlement reform."

What "entitlement reform" actually means is massive cuts to Social Security at a time when millions of older workers have nothing in the bank for their retirement.

----



Nach jüngsten Umfragen führt Roy Moore.

[Peiresc]

Der konservative Rich Lowry sagt,

Trump's presidency is, as Mark Twain is supposed to have said of Wagner's music, "better than it sounds."

und:

It is difficult to see how Ted Cruz would have governed any differently on any of these issues.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/29/the-trump-presidency-isnt-nearly-as-bad-as-it-sounds-215985

Womit er wahrscheinlich sogar recht hat; er ist hochzufrieden mit dem Rollback der Obama-Ära. Natürlich ist er ein bisschen angepisst von den Tweets, aber das ist nun mal so.

Wenn Hitler nur nicht den Judenflitz gehabt hätte; seine Autobahnen waren gar nicht so übel.

Senator Orrin Hatch (mächtiges stockkonservatives Uraltgestein) sagt, er diene gerade unter einem der besten Präsidenten. Und er ist seit Jimmy Carter Senator.

Mitch McConnell hat auch gerade gesagt, dass er mit dem Präsidenten sehr einverstanden ist, und von Paul Ryan muss man nicht reden. Matthew Yglesias hat soeben festgestellt: Es ist Unsinn anzunehmen, Ryan habe kein Rückgrat (vgl. #138); er agiert stahlhart im Sinne der Sponsoren.

Die Frage liegt in der Luft, was müsste der Präsident eigentlich tun, um unmöglich zu werden? Darauf gibt es keine Antwort.

The terrain I've described is not immutable. It is possible that at some point, the president's behavior will reach so blatantly dangerous a level that his party's elders will seek to fashion some way to entice or drag him back from the ledge. But if you look at what the president has done on a near-daily basis over the last nine months, and watch those flat-lined approval numbers and the feckless Republican response to his behavior, you may have to ask yourself: What could that behavior be? At this point, should the president in fact wander onto Fifth Avenue with a Smith and Wesson, his party will offer up heartfelt tributes to the Second Amendment.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/29/donald-trump-polls-meaningless-greenfield-215986

[Peiresc]

Noch einmal zur Steuerreform.

John McCain announces he supports the GOP tax bill — which means it will probably pass

Aber wofür ist er:

Mr. Mnuchin has promised that Treasury will release its analysis in full. Yet, just one day before the full Senate prepares to vote on a sweeping tax rewrite, the administration has yet to produce the type of economic analysis that it is citing as a reason to pass the tax cut.

Those inside Treasury's Office of Tax Policy, which Mr. Mnuchin has credited with running the models, say they have been largely shut out of the process and are not working on the type of detailed analysis that he has mentioned. An economist at the Office of Tax Analysis, who spoke on the condition of anonymity so as not to jeopardize his job, said Treasury had not released a "dynamic" analysis showing that the tax plan would be paid for with economic growth because one did not exist.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/us/politics/treasury-analysis-tax-bill.html
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/30/16719238/treasury-tax-analysis

Es handelt sich um den Kern eines Gesetzeswerks, das über Jahrzehnte wirksam sein wird. Man vermeidet es aktiv, sich über seine Auswirkungen vorher Klarheit zu verschaffen. Da rede ich gar nicht von einem regulären parlamentarischen Prozess mit Gesetzesentwürfen, öffentlichen Debatten, Ausschüssen, Anhörungen usw.

Eine atemberaubende Skrupellosigkeit. Den abschließenden Kommentar von Matthew Yglesias setze ich noch her. Er ist trotz seiner Länge lakonisch.

It's of course difficult to prove things beyond any possible doubt in a field like economics. But common sense says that if there were any kind of remotely plausible way to generate an analysis that said this tax plan would pay for itself — or even come close to paying for itself — the Republican Party would find some way to produce the actual analysis. They haven't produced such an analysis because there's no way to generate one that's remotely plausible.

The big tax cut for business owners and heirs to large fortunes will, in the long run, be paid for by people who are not business owners or heirs to large fortunes.

It may be paid for through the long-term middle-class tax increases that are laid out in the bill. Or it may be paid for through large cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other social programs. Or it may be paid for through higher interest rates that raise the cost of new investment to deliver a tax windfall to old capital.

But there is a big tax cut coming for people who own businesses and for people who stand to inherit fortunes worth more than $11 million. And there will be a price for that.

[Peiresc]

The GOP's $1.5 trillion tax plan would trigger $150 billion in cuts to domestic programs every year for a decade if Congress doesn't step in, according to the CBO. That would include $25 billion from the money Medicare pays health care providers.
[...]
The fallout for numerous smaller federal programs would be even more drastic, effectively zeroing out their budgets.

usw. usw. Das sind jetzt keine Träumereien von staatsfeindlichen Tea-Party-"Denk"fabriken oder Horrorvisionen durchgeknallter Linker:

"This would be unprecedented," said William Hoagland, a senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center and a former GOP Senate staffer with expertise on the budget. "The law never envisioned that we'd eliminate programs."
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/30/tax-bill-spending-cuts-gop-congress-274337

Ali Rogin: The Senate is literally still writing this bill as they prepare for a vote on it. Now discussing "stair-stepping" corporate tax rates, gradually raising them over a number of years. Not sure this counts as "regular order."

Matt Fuller: When I asked John Cornyn today why this tax bill was so unpopular, his answer was that the bill hasn't been written yet.

Augen zu und durch, sagen sich McConnell und Ryan.

[Peiresc]

Mueller's office announced Friday morning that a plea hearing for Flynn had been scheduled for later in the day at a federal courthouse in Washington. Flynn is scheduled to appear before U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras at 10:30 a.m. Friday.

Die kleinste der im Raum stehenden Beschuldigungen. Seth Abramson schließt daraus, dass er sich schuldig bekennen wird, und:

Mike Flynn will plead guilty to Making False Statements at 10:30 AM EST today (Friday). This is the biggest development in the Russia probe so far.

What this indicates—beyond any serious doubt—is the following: Special Counsel Bob Mueller, the former Director of the FBI, believes Mike Flynn's testimony will *incriminate* the President of the United States, the Vice President of the United States, or both of these two men.

For this reason, what's about to happen in 50 minutes is far and away the biggest development thus far in the Trump-Russia probe, and likely the biggest development in U.S. politics since President Nixon resigned from office during the Watergate scandal.

This is historic.

edit. Und er ist wohl nicht der einzige, der das so interpretiert. TheHill hat diese Schlagzeile (wenn auch nur auf einer Opinion-Seite):

Trump's Russian winter grows colder with Flynn plea deal

[Peiresc]

Dramatik. Seth Abramson sagt:

Seth Abramson?Verifizierter Account
@SethAbramson
25 Min.vor 25 Minuten

63/ The next move for the White House is this one: to try to convince the American media, and American voters, that the only thing Mueller has on Flynn is what Flynn just pled to.

Don't be deceived; that's not how this works. That's not how any of this (cooperation deals) work.

Hat nicht lang gedauert:



Dass diese anwaltliche Verlautbarung Unsinn ist, seh sogar ich. Und James Comey, der sich ausschließlich in Zitaten äußert (eine Taktik, die ich sehr liebe ), sagt:

"But justice roll down like waters and righteousness like an ever-flowing stream" Amos 5:24

Gleichzeitig hat McConnell die Stimmen für die Steuerreform zusammen, das heißt McCaine, Collins, Flake usw. machen mit. Kommentar zu letzterem von Matthew Yglesias:

My sense is there are three groups:

1: A small group believes growth will take care of deficits.

2: A small group thinks that big deficits set the table for spending cuts.

3: A large group knows donors want a tax cut and DGAF* about the rest.

------
*DGAF: originated in the South Bay by Chucky Chuck and Gillies... It means "Dont Give A Fuck" and a whole lot of people are trying to claim they started it....its all bullshit [Urban Dict.]

[Peiresc]

Dylan Matthews von Vox.com fasst zusammen, was die Steuerreform grundsätzlich für die Republikaner und für ihr Verhältnis zum Präsidenten bedeutet.

But for better or worse, he was the nominee. And if they stayed in his good graces, they could get a couple crucial things done. They could confirm a conservative to replace Antonin Scalia. They could repeal Obamacare. And they could get tax reform done.

They've now done all three.

Und er führt aus, dass der Trump-Mohr damit seine Schuldigkeit getan haben könnte. Pence ist mindestens genauso bigott, aber er sieht einfach besser aus. Jedoch:

But probably not. Ryan and McConnell will have learned that they can use Trump to accomplish their goals. And tax reform, Obamacare repeal, and Neil Gorsuch are not the sum total of their goals. There are food stamp cuts to pass, Medicare and Social Security reforms to attempt, deregulatory efforts across a number of domains to spearhead. If giving Trump a pass got them this much already, why not keep indulging him forever?

This budget will make America a lean, mean fighting machine with bulging, rippling muscles and not an ounce of fat. America has been weak and soft for too long. BUT HOW WILL I SURVIVE ON THIS BUDGET? you may be wondering. I AM A HUMAN CHILD, NOT A COSTLY FIGHTER JET. You may not survive, but that is because you are SOFT and WEAK, something this budget is designed to eliminate.

[RainerO]

Nachdem jetzt die Steuerreform durch ist, bleibt nur noch zu diskutieren, ob ein Jahr Zeit genug ist,
damit sie genug offensichtlichen Schaden anrichtet, um sich in den midterm elections niederzuschlagen.
"Make USA great again and billionaires even richer!" war als Aufschrift für eine Kappe wohl etwas zu lang.

[Peiresc]

Donald J. Trump?
@realDonaldTrump

I had to fire General Flynn because he lied to the Vice President and the FBI. He has pled guilty to those lies. It is a shame because his actions during the transition were lawful. There was nothing to hide!

09:14 - 2. Dez. 2017

[Peiresc]

Nachdem jetzt die Steuerreform durch ist, bleibt nur noch zu diskutieren, ob ein Jahr Zeit genug ist,
damit sie genug offensichtlichen Schaden anrichtet, um sich in den midterm elections niederzuschlagen.

Nein, sagt Matthew Yglesias:

As of Election Day 2018 people aren't going to see any change at all, unless they are filing their 2018 taxes freakishly early.

So geschickt sind sie dann schon. Die Steuererhöhungen für die nicht so Bemittelten werden erst schrittweise in einem Zeitraum von 5 Jahren wirksam, soweit ich das mitbekommen habe.

[Peiresc]

Zu dem Tweet in #1614 übrigens:

MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: President Trump Accidentally Admits on Twitter to Committing Obstruction of Justice

Please remember: the Republican Party OFFICIALLY established—in 1998—that Obstruction of Justice is an IMPEACHABLE offense.

President Trump just admitted to an IMPEACHABLE offense to 42 million Americans.

Nothing like this has ever happened in our history. It's mind-blowing.

I'm going to state this as simply as possible: it is a CRIME, and well-established grounds for IMPEACHMENT, to fire your FBI Director because he refuses to drop a federal criminal case you know (and have now publicly admitted) was and is fully justified.

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/937022705378975744

developing story.

[Peiresc]

Und man sollte sich auch in Erinnerung rufen, worum es eigentlich bei diesen Sanktionen ging: es war die Ausweisung russischer Diplomaten wegen der Einmischung Russlands in die Wahlen zugunsten Trumps.

[Peiresc]

Donald J. Trump?
@realDonaldTrump

I had to fire General Flynn because he lied to the Vice President and the FBI. He has pled guilty to those lies. It is a shame because his actions during the transition were lawful. There was nothing to hide!

09:14 - 2. Dez. 2017

Irgendwie fehlt der Kommentar von Sarah Huckabee Sanders, dass der Tweet für sich selbst spreche.
Inzwischen ist aufgefallen, dass er toxisch ist. Zwei nicht genannte Quellen haben der WaPo (vgl. z. B. #1480, unten) mitgeteilt, dass der Tweet von dem Trump-Anwalt Dowd sei.

John M. Dowd (born February 11, 1941) is an American lawyer, former attorney for the United States Department of Justice, and former Marine. His expertise in the law field focuses on white-collar crime. He took the main role in several baseball investigations with the most notable being the Dowd Report in 1989.
As of June 2017, Dowd is a legal advisor for the Trump administration.

Total überzeugend, dass ein Anwalt Zugriff auf den Twitter-Account des Präsidenten hat – welche Tweets hat er denn noch so abgesetzt? Absolut einleuchtend, dass ein Anwalt das Wort ,,plädierte" falsch schreibt. Völlig plausibel, dass ein erfahrener Anwalt einen Tweet zu einer laufenden Untersuchung absetzt, der seinen Klienten kompromittiert (um einen sehr zurückhaltenden Ausdruck zu bemühen).

 

[Peiresc]

Andrew Beatty, AFP White House correspondent, rekapituliert die timeline:

Jan 24 - FBI interviews Flynn
Jan 26 - Acting AG Sally Yates warns Flynn may have lied
Feb 13 - Flynn fired
Feb 14 - Trump asks FBI director Comey to let Flynn prosecution go.

Trump hat eine Serie von Beschimpfungen des FBI abgesetzt. Beatty stellt lakonisch fest:

Dowd sounds pretty angry this morning.

Und sonst noch was? Nur Kleinigkeiten.

Donald J. Trump?

I never asked Comey to stop investigating Flynn. Just more Fake News covering another Comey lie!

03:15 - 3. Dez. 2017

Comey testified under oath. Will Trump do the same, like he said he would in June?